I was thinking about a phrase that US general Colin Powell used in his autobiography. He called it the “P40/70″ rule. It’s a formula to help leaders in battle determine when there’s enough evidence to take action but I think it absolutely applies to digital decision-making too.

The thinking being that if you have less than 40% probability of making the right decision with the amount of information you currently have, then you should seek more information. But how much more? Powell’s theory is that if military leaders decide to wait until they have enough information to give them a greater than 70% probability of making the right decision, they are likely to make the wrong decision *because that decision will be too late*. The battlefield conditions will have changed.

And so it is in digital.

read full post »